12 November 2025

There was an upbeat mood in the Geneva conference room where 109 States endorsed the Nansen Initiative Protection Agenda (Protection Agenda) on 13 October 2015. Not only were participants happy with the outcomes of the series of regional consultations conducted over the course of more than two years, but they were also looking forward with a lot of optimism to the United Nations Climate Conference (COP21) in Paris, confident that the negotiations on what became later known as the Paris Agreement would be successful.

Ten years later, much of this optimism has vanished in a world marred by rising authoritarianism, armed conflict, and denial of the climate crisis by certain world leaders. Yet, it is important to remember today that much progress has been made over the past decade – progress that cannot be easily dismantled.

Looking back

How did it start? It is worth recalling that the Nansen Initiative was launched as a State-led, multi-stakeholder process to follow-up on the Cancún Climate Change Adaptation Framework adopted by COP16 in 2010, which recognized climate change-related (forced) displacement, (predominantly voluntary) migration, and planned relocation as adaptation challenges. During a ministerial meeting at UNHCR in late 2011, it became clear that the topic of cross-border disaster-displacement was too sensitive to be comprehensively discussed within the UN. Norway and Switzerland reacted immediately. Supported by a small group of States, they pledged to organize a series of consultations in affected regions aimed at building consensus on key principles and elements to address these challenges outside formal UN processes. This led to the launch of the Nansen Initiative on Cross-Border Disaster Displacement in October 2012.

The process was successful and resulted in widespread support for the Protection Agenda. The Protection Agenda highlights that displacement in the context of disasters and the adverse effects of climate change is a multicausal phenomenon, occurring when individuals and communities are exposed to natural hazards and lack the capacity to cope with its impacts. The Protection Agenda compiles a series of effective practices to protect people in countries of refuge as well as to manage displacement risks in countries of origin. The Protection Agenda also highlights the need to work across and seek coherence among multiple policy areas. It identifies data and knowledge, the enhanced use of instruments enabling the admission and stay of persons displaced across borders by disasters, and stronger management of disaster displacement risks in countries of origin as priority areas for future action.

Framing and feeding

Key to the success and continuing relevance of the Nansen Initiative and its Protection Agenda was the early decision to use it as a starting point for framing messages and feeding them into relevant negotiations. Members of the Initiative’s Steering Group successfully pushed for the inclusion of human mobility in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in March 2015, despite strong opposition during negotiations to expand the framework’s scope. Although the Nansen Initiative formally ended in late 2015, continued influence on global and regional policy discussions from 2016 onwards became possible after Germany and Bangladesh decided to continue the work of the Nansen Initiative by launching the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD). The PDD was launched at the World Humanitarian Summit in May 2016 to implement the Protection Agenda by supporting States and other stakeholders to strengthen the protection of persons displaced across borders in the context of disasters and the adverse effects of climate change, as well as to prevent or reduce disaster displacement risks in countries of origin.

These efforts yielded tangible results. Since 2017, the Global Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) has consistently recognized the need to address displacement risks and prepare for them as part of disaster risk management, not least because the PDD and its partners consistently highlighted the need to integrate human mobility in national and local DRR strategies.

The endorsement of the Protection Agenda in October 2015 also helped to prepare the ground for the decision to create the Task Force on Displacement under the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage at COP21 in Paris a month later, and the endorsement of its recommendations by COP24 in 2018.Today, displacement is also part of the mandate and scope of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage created in 2022 on the occasion of COP27. States can receive technical assistance on this issue through the Santiago Network, set up by COP25 in 2019.

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM), adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2018, addresses the need to mitigate and address the adverse effects of climate change, disasters and other environmental impacts as drivers of migration, including with an explicit reference to the Protection Agenda, and calls for providing people displaced across borders with temporary or in some cases even permanent admission.

The Protection Agenda also catalyzed and provided guidance for progress at regional levels. In the Americas, governments developed guidance to harmonize their laws allowing to admit disaster-displaced persons based on humanitarian considerations, and also adopted as part of the Cartagena+40 process an ambitious plan of action. In its recent Advisory Opinion on climate change, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights referenced the Protection Agenda repeatedly. In the Pacific region, a process that had started with the Nansen Initiative regional consultation hosted by the Government of the Cook Islands in 2013, culminated in the adoption of the Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility in late 2023. And in the Horn of Africa, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) built on the Protection Agenda’s recommendation to use agreements on the free movement of persons to provide migration pathways to persons affected by disasters. It integrated a provision into its free movement protocol explicitly opening the possibility of free movement of affected persons in anticipation of, during and in the aftermath of disasters, including drought and flooding.

Looking forward

Displacement and other forms of human mobility in the context of disasters and the adverse effects of climate change remain an important and growing challenge. The relevance of the issue is now universally recognized and firmly anchored in the international agenda, despite some governments denying the reality of climate change. It continues to be debated in relevant fora dealing with climate change, disaster risk reduction, displacement and migration, and human rights. These policy areas influence and complement each other, and the level of coherence between them is substantial.

At the same time, increasing numbers of disaster displaced persons suggest that there is a substantial disconnect between the reality of displacement and what has been achieved on paper. There is still insufficient data and knowledge about the dynamics on the ground. Many countries still lack adequate normative and institutional frameworks. Sustainable solutions for persons in protracted internal displacement are often neglected. And financing to support the countries least responsible for global warming remains hugely insufficient. The ongoing crisis of multilateralism at the global level as well as the sharp decline in funding for humanitarian and development initiatives threaten the sustainability and future progress based on what has been achieved since 2015.

Yet, meaningful progress is still possible, provided that States are willing to cooperate. In this regard, the Nansen Initiative process and the work of the PDD provide some important lessons. Much can be achieved through what might be called ‘minilateralism’ – that is, through the efforts of a group of committed States with different experiences but a common will to address human mobility in the context of disasters and climate change by working bottom-up. Important achievements are possible in regional and sub-regional contexts where similar challenges are faced. Last but not least, placing trust in communities that are at risk of displacement or have been displaced, and viewing them as actors with the capacity to take action, would help to find solutions that are adapted to local conditions. A combination of minilateralism, regionalization and localization will not be able to fully ensure the protection of persons displaced or at the risk of displacement in the context of disasters and the adverse effects of climate change, but is a pragmatic and realistic answer to the present challenges affecting the international system. The good news for interested States and other stakeholders is that the Protection Agenda continues to provide a toolkit for action, and the effective practices outlined there have proven their worth over the years and remain as useful and relevant as ever.

Walter Kälin is the Envoy of the Chair of the Platform on Disaster Displacement.