16 September 2026

When the Nansen Initiative Protection Agenda was endorsed by 109 States in 2015, one of its enduring messages was that better protection depends on better evidence. At the time, understanding of disaster displacement remained limited. Data was fragmented, methodologies differed across countries, and available information often focused on documenting humanitarian needs rather than understanding the economic impacts of displacement. Without reliable evidence, governments struggled to understand the scale and drivers of disaster displacement. This evidence gap also hindered their ability to anticipate future risks, integrate human mobility into disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate adaptation planning and develop dedicated migration policies. 

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction has accelerated investment in disaster risk information and monitoring systems, contributing to a growing recognition of disaster displacement within global climate and development agendas. According to the Sendai Framework Midterm Review in 2023, 93 per cent of Member States identified improvements in risk information and management since 2015, while more than 110 countries now maintain national disaster loss databases using the DesInventar system.

But this is about more than an increase in data collection. The role of data itself has fundamentally shifted. We are no longer collecting evidence simply to document displacement after disasters occur. Increasingly, data is being used before disaster strikes to understand risk, anticipate future displacement and support decisions that reduce its impacts.

Making disaster displacement visible

Over the past decade, improvements in monitoring systems, standardized methodologies and collaboration between governments, humanitarian organizations and research institutions have substantially strengthened the global evidence base. The latest Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID 2026) demonstrates why these investments matter. In 2025 alone, disasters triggered 29.9 million internal displacements across 140 countries and territories. Since systematic global monitoring began in 2008, almost 480 million disaster displacements have been recorded worldwide.

An equally important development has been the growing recognition that displacement is itself a disaster impact that should be measured alongside mortality, people affected and economic losses. As countries have strengthened implementation of the Sendai Framework, displacement has been increasingly recognized as an important indicator for understanding the full impacts of disasters and monitoring progress towards reducing disaster risk.

To support this transition from theory to practice, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) developed a standard set of disaster displacement indicators to strengthen national monitoring systems. Rather than creating parallel databases, the indicators help governments integrate displacement into existing disaster loss databases and Sendai Framework reporting by providing practical guidance on what information should be collected, at what frequency, and at what level of disaggregation. These indicators are operationalized into monitoring systems through the upgraded DesInventar system – DELTA Resilience.

These developments represent an important shift. Displacement data is becoming more than just evidence of humanitarian need – they are increasingly a tool for understanding disaster risk and informing decisions to reduce it.

Looking beyond the numbers

As the evidence base has matured, so have governments begun to ask different questions. While knowing how many people were displaced remains essential, governments also increasingly want to understand who is displaced, why, for how long, and what displacement actually means for people’s lives, livelihoods and economies.

This shift has encouraged a new generation of analytical approaches. In 2021, IDMC developed the first global methodology to estimate the economic costs of internal displacement, estimating that one year of internal displacement generated approximately US$21 billion in costs worldwide. Building on this work, IOM developed a regional costing tool for Latin America and the Caribbean to estimate the costs associated with disaster displacement and planned relocation at regional and national levels.

More recently, the focus has expanded to include non-economic losses and damages. IDMC introduced a methodology to estimate the human cost of disaster displacement by measuring the temporary reduction in people’s ability to live healthy, secure and productive lives while displaced. Applying this approach in Bangladesh showed that approximately 21 million disaster displacements between 2008 and 2025 resulted in an estimated 89,000 life-years lost, equivalent to around US$1.7 billion.

These approaches demonstrate that the impacts of displacement cannot be understood through the scale of displacement alone. Measuring these wider impacts helps governments understand disaster displacement as a development challenge and strengthens the case for investing in prevention, preparedness and resilient recovery.

From hindsight to foresight

More recently, efforts have focused on using the data to inform anticipatory action. Advances in disaster displacement risk modelling have made it possible to estimate where future displacement is most likely to occur by combining information on hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Rather than relying solely on historical trends, these models use historical data to build and calibrate projections of future displacement risk. This allows governments to identify future displacement hotspots, compare climate scenarios and prioritize investments where they are likely to reduce future displacement the most.

In 2025, IDMC and partners released an updated global disaster displacement risk model showing that the risk of displacement associated with weather-related hazards is expected to increase under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios. Building on these advances, IOM developed the Risk Index for Climate Displacement (RICD) to strengthen climate-informed decision-making by improving understanding of the drivers, triggers and tipping points for climate-related displacement.

Together, these initiatives demonstrate how disaster displacement data is evolving from monitoring past events to supporting forward-looking policy and investment decisions on disaster risk reduction, adaptation, land use and infrastructure. Disaster displacement data is also critical to informing loss and damage responses, as they capture a key dimension of climate and disaster-related impacts, shed light on the human consequences and non-economic losses experienced by affected populations, and provide essential evidence for directing funding where needs are greatest.

From evidence to action

Ultimately, data has little value unless it influences decisions and action. One of the clearest lessons from the past decade is that effective displacement data systems depend on strong national ownership combined with complementary partnerships across government entities, international organizations, academia, civil society and local communities.

Indonesia provides one example of this transition. Disaster displacement data collected by the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) has been integrated into InaRISK, the country’s national disaster risk information system. By combining displacement data with hazard, exposure and vulnerability information, authorities can identify where disasters are most likely to result in displacement and prioritize investments accordingly. Today, this information contributes to Indonesia’s disaster risk index across 497 districts and municipalities. At the regional level, IOM’s RICD similarly helps governments identify priority areas for adaptation and resilience-building, enabling targeted investments that can avert, minimize and address climate-related displacement.

These experiences reinforce an important lesson from the past decade: data is not an end in itself. Its value lies in helping governments make better decisions that reduce risk, strengthen resilience and ultimately better protect people.

Looking ahead

Perhaps the greatest lesson from the past decade is that progress cannot be taken for granted. GRID 2026 highlights how fragile the evidence base has become. In 2025, IDMC observed reductions in displacement data availability in 15 per cent of the countries and territories it monitored – three times the proportion recorded in 2024. Long-standing structural gaps in national data systems, combined with reductions in humanitarian funding and fewer displacement assessments, contributed to this decline.

As climate change intensifies and disaster risks become increasingly complex, this trend threatens to reverse a decade of progress. Without robust displacement data, governments risk making decisions based on incomplete or outdated evidence, while displaced populations risk becoming less visible in policy and planning.

Avoiding this outcome will require renewed investment in nationally owned displacement monitoring systems. Governments must continue to lead by embedding displacement within national disaster risk management, climate adaptation and statistical systems. At the same time, strong government leadership must be supported by complementary partnerships. International organizations have played a critical role in developing common methodologies and strengthening national capacities, while humanitarian organizations, academia and civil society continue to contribute to operational data, technical expertise and methodological innovation. Together, these partnerships have transformed disaster displacement data from fragmented humanitarian reporting into an increasingly robust evidence base for risk-informed decision-making.

Important gaps nevertheless remain, particularly in data on how long displacement lasts, where displaced people move to and the types of mobility that arise in slow-onset contexts. Closing these gaps will be essential to better understand displacement impacts and design effective policies and solutions.

Ten years after the endorsement of the Protection Agenda, we are better able to measure disaster displacement, better understand its impacts and increasingly anticipate future risks. Perhaps, the greatest legacy, however, is not the data itself, but the recognition that disaster displacement can be measured, understood and ultimately reduced through better decisions.

The challenge now is to ensure that we do not lose that momentum. At a time when climate risks are increasing but investment in data systems is becoming more uncertain, protecting nationally owned monitoring systems and the partnerships that sustain them must become a priority in their own right. Otherwise, we risk reversing a decade of hard-won progress at precisely the moment when governments need robust displacement data most to reduce disaster displacement and better protect people.

Thannaletchimy Housset is the Global Insights Manager at IDMC leading research and analysis on internal displacement including the Global Report on Internal Displacement.